Regional and global security challenges at the top of the agenda during NATO PA seminar in Antalya  

Leading legislators from NATO Allies and partner and guest delegations from across the Middle East and Africa convened in Antalya from 28 to 30 April for a high-level three-day seminar to foster closer dialogue and cooperation as global security challenges grow. The Delegation of Türkiye to the NATO PA hosted the seminar at a critical time for both Euro-Atlantic and Middle Eastern security, when Allies need to prioritise strengthening cooperation with partners across their Southern Flank.  

The seminar was co-chaired by Mevlut Cavusoglu, Head of the Turkish delegation to the NATO PA, Fernando Gutierrez (Spain), Chairperson of the Mediterranean and Middle East Special Group (GSM), and Tamas Harangozo (Hungary), Chairperson of the Economics and Security Committee’s Sub-Committee on Transition and Development. It brought together over 90 parliamentarians representing 18 NATO Allies, along with members from 15 partner delegations and guests, including eight from the Middle East and Africa.  

Throughout the seminar, legislators, officials and experts emphasised the rapidly evolving nature of regional and global security challenges, stressing the importance of increased dialogue and cooperation in the Euro-Mediterranean area. Over three days, discussions centred on regional stability and the impact of great power competition in the region, with a particular focus on counter-terrorism efforts, human security, persistent and new conflicts, threats to maritime security, technological warfare, nuclear proliferation, food security, and disinformation.  

Today’s challenges are complex, and increased geostrategic competition is shaping the international security architecture. Ongoing conflicts in the Eurasian theatre – particularly in Ukraine and Gaza – were prominent in the discussions. Participants also pointed to increased geostrategic competition, which is driven by the so-called “axis of disruption” – i.e. Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, who aim to destabilise Allied influence and undermine the existing international order.   

As NATO PA Vice President Agnes Vadai (Hungary) noted in her opening remarks, “Russia is not alone in sowing instability. Iran has supported Russian aggression in Europe while destabilising the region through its regional proxies,” underscoring that dialogue and building trust with partners have never been as important to “advance common values and defend the rules-based international order”.  

NATO engagement and the Southern Neighbourhood Action Plan   

Last year’s GSM seminar stressed that NATO’s Eastern Flank had rightly been at the centre of focus since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, but security challenges stemming from the Southern Flank have also grown and continue to intensify.   

To support NATO’s 360-degree approach to security, Allies endorsed a Southern Neighbourhood Action Plan at the Washington Summit 2024. As part of this initiative, NATO appointed a Special Representative for the Southern Neighbourhood to increase and focalise the Alliance’s engagement in the Middle East, North Africa and Sahel regions.   

The Special Representative’s mandate – to “strengthen dialogue and engagement with partner countries, international organisations and other relevant interlocutors in the region” – has provided a clear focal point for NATO’s regional cooperation. This appointment not only elevated Southern engagement on NATO’s agenda, but also signalled to partner countries that their concerns were being taken seriously. Delegations from the Southern Neighbourhood welcomed the move as a much-needed step toward addressing common concerns in the Euro-Mediterranean region.   

Giovanni Romani, Head of NATO’s Southern Neighbourhood Division, noted that the 360-degree approach to security is vital in today’s challenging environment, identifying two primary challenges: the persistent and evolving threat of terrorism, and the growing influence of geostrategic competitors—notably Russia, China and increasingly Iran, whose nuclear ambitions are of mounting concern to Allies.   

Echoing this sentiment, Mr Cavusoglu stressed the importance of Allied engagement along the Southern Flank, as well as the key role played by legislators amidst great power competition. “Engaging with this region will shape the stability of the region’s future,” he said. “As parliamentarians, we have a role to play to have democratic sustainable solutions.”   

Opportunities in the growing role of the Gulf countries and strategic changes with a new government in Syria   

The Middle East stands at an inflection point as its strategic and political landscape undergoes profound transformation. While the ongoing war in Gaza garners the most attention, there is an underlying change of dynamics driving a growing level of destabilisation. One such shift is the ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. As Syria faces mounting uncertainty, members discussed the implications of Assad’s downfall, the former regime’s relationship with Iran and Russia, and the steps required to support Syria’s path towards inclusive and accountable governance.   

The dire humanitarian situation was frequently highlighted, with regional delegations warning that Syria’s instability risks turning it into a safe haven for terrorist groups. Without meaningful progress towards stability and inclusive governance, they cautioned, the country’s fragility could fuel broader regional unrest.   

Nanar Hawach, a Senior Analyst at the International Crisis Group, noted that while Syria was now free from the dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad, the new leadership faces steep challenges—from crippling sanctions and weak control over the armed forces to the presence of spoilers at home and abroad. Hawach stressed that instead of disengaging, the international community must remain involved, pressuring Damascus on inclusivity and democratic reforms while prioritising sanctions relief and economic recovery.  

Multiple speakers highlighted the growing importance of strong relations between NATO and the Gulf countries as the latter increasingly play a bigger role in regional and global affairs, both as regional mediators and as energy providers. Recent efforts by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and Egypt to mediate conflicts were welcomed by the international community as promising regional initiatives that could advance peace and stability efforts. 

Revisionist actors across the Southern Neighbourhood  

Underpinning discussions throughout the seminar were mounting concerns over the expanding strategic engagement and partnerships between revisionist actors, namely Russia, China and Iran, across the Middle East and Africa. Members highlighted the long-term geopolitical implications of China’s growing influence in both regions, arguing that NATO must consider the challenge not only in economic terms, but as a broader geopolitical and strategic shift.   

Ahmed Aboudouh, Associate Fellow on China and the Middle East at Chatham House, noted that since 2017, “China’s rising influence—culminating in its recent 2023 regional mediation efforts—signals a growing appetite for risk and a willingness to test global ambitions through the Middle East.” Despite internal economic challenges, President Xi Jinping’s centralisation of power has enabled bold foreign initiatives, particularly as the US–China rivalry deepens and regional dynamics shift. Kaan Devecioglu, Director of African Studies at the Centre for Middle East Studies, expanded on these points, pointing out similar patterns in Africa: China is deepening its presence through long-term economic and development projects, while Russia is asserting itself as a perceived security provider, further challenging Allied influence on the continent.   

Among the “axis of disruption,” particular attention was given to Iran, whose destabilising activities and growing strategic partnerships were seen as especially concerning for regional and Euro-Atlantic security. Several members voiced concerns over Iran’s support to their network of proxies, namely the Houthis, Hamas and Hezbollah, and their involvement in multiple regional conflicts. Wolf-Christian Paes, Senior Fellow for Armed Conflict at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, cautioned, however, that while these groups are aligned with Tehran, they do not always operate under its direct control, and that any effective international response must account for this nuance.   

Utku Cakirozer (Türkiye), Vice-Chairperson and Acting Rapporteur of the GSM, presented the preliminary draft of the latest GSM report entitled Iran’s threat to Regional and Euro-Atlantic Security. Cakirozer underscored the significance of how Iran's regional influence had intensified through its support for the Assad regime in Syria and its backing of militant groups across the region. Further, he warned that the country’s nuclear ambitions pose risks to regional and international security.   

Cakirozer also highlighted the seriousness of Tehran’s support for Russian aggression in Europe, notably with regard to Moscow’s use of Iranian drones to target Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure.  As he noted, “with Iranian drones raining down on Ukrainian cities, and Russian advisors assisting Iran in missile development,” their relationship was no longer a theoretical threat, but a real and immediate danger to Euro-Atlantic security.   

The threat posed by Iran was prominently underscored by Mr Giovanni, Head of NATO’s Southern Neighbourhood Division, who stated: “Iran is of particular concern to the Alliance for three main reasons: its continued pursuit of nuclear capabilities, its direct support for Russia—particularly in the context of the war in Ukraine—and its broader role in undermining regional stability. This emerging axis carries profound global consequences that NATO cannot afford to overlook.”   

The evolving threat of terrorism and the impacts of threats to international shipping on food security   

Terrorism remains the most direct asymmetric threat,not only to NATO citizens but to international stability. This threat is evolving alongside emerging strategic challenges. In his remarks, Gabriele Cascone, Head of NATO’s Counter-Terrorism Section within the Operations Division, warned of the continued activity and growing innovation of terrorist networks, stressing that NATO and its partners must match this adaptability with equally innovative and forward-looking strategies.  

Several delegations expressed concern about how persistent conflicts, economic instability, radicalisation and disinformation continue to fuel the recurring threat of terrorism. Despite decades of war and multinational counter-terrorism efforts, groups like the Islamic State remain a significant concern for NATO Allies and partners in the Middle East and Africa. Delegates stressed that addressing radicalisation requires more than security operations—it calls for ideological engagement, educational initiatives and the strengthening of moderate, constructive voices.  

Participants shared a common concern over the growing hopelessness among youth—driven by poverty, unemployment and social exclusion—which leaves them particularly vulnerable to extremist narratives. Delegates called for a renewed commitment to social justice, youth empowerment and inclusive policies to build resilient societies where extremism cannot take root. Professor Mehmet Ozkan of the Joint Warfare Institute at the Turkish National Defence University stressed that counter-terrorism strategies cannot rely solely on military solutions, advocating instead for holistic, nationally led strategies. “Terrorism is almost always one step ahead of institutions and governments,” he warned, highlighting the urgency of proactive and locally grounded responses.  

Threats to maritime security and international shipping—especially from the Russia- and Iran-backed Houthis—continue to present serious challenges to global supply chains and food security. James Bergeron, Political Adviser to the Commander of NATO’s Maritime Command, highlighted how renewed Houthi missile and drone attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden since October 2023 have diverted up to two-thirds of traffic from the Suez Canal, forcing vessels to reroute around Africa—adding 10 to 14 days and up to 40 percent in distance. These disruptions have driven inflation, with particularly acute consequences for the Middle East and Africa. Throughout briefings, experts were clear: revisionist powers such as Russia and Iran are leveraging regional proxies to exert global influence—strategically destabilising critical maritime corridors. At present, circumnavigating Africa remains the only secure route for over half of East–West global trade.  

Food security remains a critical challenge across the Southern Neighbourhood, where conflict, instability and a high dependence on food imports—exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—have heightened insecurity in both the Middle East and Africa.   

Russia’s full-scale invasion disrupted global food supply chains by targeting commercial shipping, blockading Ukrainian grain exports and attacking port infrastructure. In response, Ukraine deployed land-based anti-ship missiles and autonomous undersea drones—tactics that, as noted by Mr Bergeron, proved remarkably effective in 2024. These innovations not only challenged Russian naval dominance, but are also a striking example of how rapidly adaptable, commercially available technologies—paired with human ingenuity—can reshape modern warfare.   

In discussions on the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Zeki Levent Gumrukcu, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Türkiye, recalled Ankara’s role in stabilising global food markets as markets panicked and prices soured, with 44 million people in 28 countries facing an emergency food crisis following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and blockades in the Black Sea. In her remarks on Russia’s continued weaponisation of food through its war of aggression, Solomiia Bobrovska, Deputy Head of the Delegation of Ukraine to the NATO PA, highlighted that Ukraine continues to export 45 million tons of grain annually and that, despite Russian threats to treat grain vessels as military targets, the Ukrainian navy continues to protect vital corridors.  

The forgotten crisis: the Sahel’s silent descent into despair and violent extremism  

Although no longer in the media spotlight, the Sahel continues to face escalating violence, rising authoritarianism and a worsening humanitarian crisis. A wave of military coups from 2020 to 2023—spurred by insecurity, poor governance and discontent with Western interventions—has further destabilised the region. In 2024, the Sahel accounted for over 51 percent  of global terrorism-related deaths, with extremist violence claiming more than 11,000 lives.  

Tighisti Amare, Deputy Director of the Africa Programme at Chatham House, warned that the political vacuum left by declining Western engagement is increasingly being filled by alternative actors, notably Russia. From the Wagner Group—now renamed Afrika Korps—striking security agreements with the Malian junta to Russia’s representatives at the UN defending coups in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso at the UN Security Council as pushback against “neo-colonial models,” the Kremlin continues to seek to expand its influence across the region. Amare stressed the urgent need for a recalibrated, regionally led but internationally supported effort to prevent broader destabilisation: “Disengagement is not a viable option,” she warned. “Instability and terrorist threats can easily spill over beyond Africa and into Europe and can also fuel further irregular migration.”   

Rising violent extremism and its toll on human security in Africa and the Midde East play a significant role in shaping Allied security perspectives. Over three days of discussion, members examined the human security impact of increasing geostrategic competition, such as that ongoing in the Sahel. As Anne Bennett, Head of the Africa Americas Division at the Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance, noted, parliamentarians can strengthen Allied responses by ensuring human and local security needs remain central to national security policy making as well as shape government decisions to ensure a coordinated response to threats emanating from NATO’s Southern Neighbourhood.  

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Photos courtesy of the © Grand National Assembly of Turkey