There is a definitive trend in ruling parties – when their governments collapse through either election defeat or implosion, the emergence of a new leader is as expected as night follows day.

The world has been treated to the spectacle of Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss of the UK.
Unless Britain goes through a miracle, there will be a change of government in the forthcoming election. If anything in the entire world is certain is Rishi Sunak will either step down or suffer an ignominious defeat in a leadership contest. Party folks love to blame their leader for the loss of power.

Two reasons explain why Aubrey Norton won the PNC leadership two years ago. First, the APNU+AFC government was the biggest political disappointment in the history of both British Guiana and Guyana. In no other circumstance in this country’s history, has so much been expected of a political formation and it failed to meet even the minimum requirement of expectation.

Each day in its five year biology, instead of vision, the government produced ordinary results. Mr. Granger was a lackluster exception in a long line of Caribbean leaders who gelled with the people. No other Caribbean leader was so distant in office as Mr. Granger. The AFC and WPA while in power were completely blanked out of the minds of Guyanese who held them as folk heroes before they acquired political power.

At the end of July 2020 when the last battle in the election war was lost in Guyana’s Court of Appeal and the life of the APNU+AFC had come to an end, the hierarchy of the PNC was mentally demobilised. They had no mental energy left in them. They were relieved that the drama was over. They just wanted to seek solace somewhere else but not in politics.

In these circumstances, the leadership contest was inevitable and what was expected was that there would be new faces emerging. It was unthinkable that any former minister would want to contest. The exception was Basil Williams but ego-tripping compelled Williams to throw his hat in the ring but he was a loser from day one.

The second reason that worked in Norton’s favour was his obfuscation for the five years his party was in power. It turned out to be a blessing in disguise. He held no ministerial portfolio and no hugely important position. He was Youth Empowerment Director in the Office of the President but that portfolio was subordinate to several ministries whose jurisdiction was the same. Then he was shifted to the Ministry of Citizenship where he simply occupied an office.

When APNU+AFC lost, and PNC supporters countrywide were crying, there was no anger against Norton because he was not one of the big-wigs that brought about the PNC’s untergang. Norton then had no rival in the leadership race in December 2021. His victory was assured because all of the big-wigs in the former APNU government stayed completely silent during the leadership battle in December 2021.There was not even a scintilla of opinion about Norton from these voices.

Surprisingly, Norton did not win a landslide. Less than 50 per cent of the delegates voted, the reason for that should not detain us here. Today, in 2024, there is a different menu cooking at Congress Place. Norton failed to effect the transformation of soldier in the trench to leader of the party.

What has happened is that the former hierarchy is now working behind the scene to topple Norton and their chances are good. They know that it is still too early for them to show their faces but they are backing three candidates (Ganesh Mahipaul is not one of them) to oust Norton. Amna Ally decided to speak out unlike the other hierarchy members because she is seen as vintage PNC, an iconic figure.

It is not easy to smear Ali because she is no newcomer like Granger or Harmon who are vulnerable to the newcomer label. Ali is the last stalwart from the 70s and 80s that still remains at a visible level in the PNC. The attack on Ali has been a strategic mistake that will definitely hurt Aubrey Norton’s chances in August. Too many former stalwarts are fond of Ali and they are not pleased of the disparaging remarks made against her.

Norton can only survive if the three choices of the invisible former top leaders fight each other. They are going to steal each other’s votes. The guess is as August draws nearer, two of them will put out and throw their weight behind a consensus figure. Nothing in politics is guaranteed but I doubt Norton can win.

DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Guyana National Newspapers Limited.