US expands access to Philippines bases as North Korea ramps up nuclear rhetoric

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NORTH KOREA THREATENS ‘OVERWHELMING NUCLEAR FORCE’: North Korea has reacted with angry threats in response to the joint announcement from the United States and South Korea that the two allies will increase defensive military exercises aimed at deterring the North.

“The U.S. secretary of defense openly declared that the U.S. would deploy more strategic assets such as the fifth generation stealth fighters and nuclear carriers, unhesitatingly talking about the use of nuclear weapons against the DPRK,” said a statement issued by North Korea’s Foreign Ministry. “This is a vivid expression of the U.S. dangerous scenario which will result in turning the Korean peninsula into a huge war arsenal and a more critical war zone.”

The bellicose statement from an unnamed Foreign Ministry spokesperson in Pyongyang came in response to remarks from Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his South Korean counterpart, Lee Jong-sup, on Tuesday announcing the expanded military drills. “We deployed fifth-generation aircraft, F-22s, F-35s, and also deployed a carrier strike group to visit the peninsula,” said Austin. “You can look for more of that kind of activity going forward.”

“The military and political situation on the Korean peninsula and in the region has reached an extreme red-line due to the reckless military confrontational maneuvers,” said the North Korea statement. “The DPRK has a clear counteraction strategy capable of coping with any short- and long-term scenario attempted by the U.S. and its vassal forces, and will strongly control the present and future potential challenges with the most overwhelming nuclear force.”

AUSTIN: BASES IN PHILIPPINES ‘A REALLY BIG DEAL’: Meanwhile, Austin has moved on to Manila, where today he announced an Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement with the Philippines that will give the U.S. access to four new bases in “strategic” locations in the country.

Austin stressed the U.S. will not be stationing additional troops in the Philippines but will be able to use the bases, which will be upgraded at U.S. expense, for training and response to various contingencies.

“This is an opportunity to increase our effectiveness, increase interoperability,” said Austin. “It is not about permanent basing, but it is a big deal. It’s a really big deal.”

While the agreement is widely seen as another move to counter China as it eyes forced unification of Taiwan, Austin said the enhanced access is a “cooperative agreement that enables rotational activities.”

“It’s a key pillar of our training and opportunities to strengthen our interoperability, and it also provides us the ability to respond effectively to humanitarian issues and also disaster relief and other types of crises, not just for the Philippines but for the region throughout.”

US GAINS ACCESS TO KEY BASES IN THE PHILIPPINES, BOLSTERING ABILITY TO MONITOR CHINA

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HAPPENING TODAY: President Joe Biden lunches with Jordan’s King Abdullah II and Crown Prince Hussein at the White House. “They will reaffirm the close, enduring nature of the friendship between the United States and Jordan, and the President will thank His Majesty for his close partnership and the role he and Jordan play as a force for stability in the Middle East,” the White House said in a statement.

ALSO TODAY: A final vote is expected in the House that would block Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) from taking a seat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee. While House Speaker Keven McCarthy (R-CA) has exercised his power to deny Reps. Adam Schiff (D-CA) and Eric Swalwell (D-CA) seats on the House Intelligence Committee, barring Omar from a seat on a standing committee requires a full House vote.

A preliminary vote yesterday indicated that after some initial reservations by some Republican House members, the support is there to boot the Somali-born Muslim lawmaker from the Foreign Affairs Committee on what is expected to be a straight party-line vote.

Omar has apologized for past comments she said she didn’t realize at the time were antisemitic tropes, but fellow Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN), the majority whip, said her apologies have fallen short.

“The issue today before the House is going to be about a member who, since she has been in Congress, has attacked American allies, has attacked America. She has made statements that the United States has committed terrorist acts,” Emmer said on CNN. “Ms. Omar has to explain to her fellow colleagues why it is that she would make those comments and how she is then qualified to actually make decisions when it comes to foreign affairs and our relationships with countries around the globe.”

VICTORIA SPARTZ REJOINS FIGHT TO STRIP ILHAN OMAR FROM FOREIGN AFFAIRS COMMITTEE

HASC GETS ORGANIZED: The House Armed Services Committee, under new Chairman Mike Rogers (R-AL), meets today at 9 a.m. in 2118 Rayburn to organize for the 118th Congress.

Last night, the committee released the makeup of the various subcommittees, adding the Democrats serving as ranking members to the previously announced list of new Republican chairmen. Here is the short list (and yes, they are all men). You can find the full list here.

Cyber, Information Technology, and Innovation:
Mike Gallagher (R-WI) – Chairman
Ro Khanna (D-CA) – Ranking Member

Intelligence and Special Operations:
Jack Bergman (R-MI) – Chairman
Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) – Ranking Member

Military Personnel:
Jim Banks (R-IN) – Chairman
Andy Kim (D-NJ) – Ranking Member

Readiness: 
Michael Waltz (R-FL) – Chairman
John Garamendi (D-CA) – Ranking Member

Seapower and Projection Forces:
Trent Kelly (R-MS) – Chairman
Joe Courtney (D-CT) – Ranking Member

Strategic Forces:
Doug Lamborn (R-CO) – Chairman
Seth Moulton (D-MA) – Ranking Member

Tactical Air and Land Forces: 
Rob Wittman (R-VA) – Chairman
Donald Norcross (D-NJ) – Ranking Member

NEW SASC RANKING MEMBER: The Senate Armed Services Committee also released its roster including new members. Notably, Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS) is the new ranking Republican after the retirement of Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-IA) last year.

You can find the new list of members announced by Chairman Jack Reed (D-RI) here.

UKRAINE BRACES FOR HALF A MILLION RUSSIAN TROOPS: “Ukrainian officials are continuing to warn about Russia’s intention of conducting a decisive offensive operation in Donbas in February and/or March,” according to the latest assessment from the Institute for the Study of War, which quoted the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate spokesman as predicting the “poor state of Russian military equipment will force the Russian military command to mass forces to outnumber Ukrainian defenders in order to make gains.”

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said yesterday that it appears Russia has mobilized as many as half a million new troops in preparation for launching a massive human onslaught against Ukrainian over the next two months.

“Officially, they announced 300,000, but when we see the troops at the borders, according to our estimates, it is much more. We think that they have already mobilized 500,000,” said Reznikov in an interview on French TV.

The ISW assessment quoted Ukrainian Col. Serhiy Hrabskyi as saying, “Russia does not have sufficient forces to conduct an attack along the entire 1,500 km front line in Ukraine and will concentrate its efforts on seizing Donetsk and Luhansk,” and noted, “A prominent Russian milblogger observed that the prospect of a Russian offensive operation does not appear to be triggering panic among Ukrainian forces, who are continuing to build out their counteroffensive plans.”

RUSSIA IS PREPARING FOR ‘MAXIMUM ESCALATION,’ TOP UKRAINIAN SECURITY OFFICIAL SAYS

AUSTIN ON F-16s: During his news conference this morning in Manila, Austin was asked again if the U.S. will reconsider sending F-16s to Ukraine.

“We’re focused on providing Ukraine the capability that it needs to be effective in its upcoming anticipated counteroffensive in the spring, and so we’re doing everything we can to get them the capabilities that they need right now to be effective on the battlefield,” Austin responded, neither ruling in or out F-16s in the future.

“You’ve heard us talk about artillery, air defense. We made a big push to provide more armored vehicle capability, and so all of those things are in play. And we’re also increasing the training that we’re providing the Ukrainians so that these higher-end platforms they can effectively use in combat. So that’s our focus currently.”

FORMER DEFENSE SECRETARIES DISAGREE ON WHETHER US SHOULD GIVE UKRAINE F-16S

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: US gains access to key bases in the Philippines, bolstering ability to monitor China

Washington Examiner: Russia is preparing for ‘maximum escalation,’ top Ukrainian security official says

Washington Examiner: Former defense secretaries disagree on whether US should give Ukraine F-16s

Washington Examiner: ‘What is it with this guy?’ Boris Johnson urges GOP to ignore Tucker Carlson on Russia

Washington Examiner: Treasury Department sanctions nearly two dozen for helping Russia evade blockade

Washington Examiner: Ilhan Omar one step closer to being booted from powerful post after vote

Washington Examiner: Jim Himes named top Democrat on Intelligence Committee after McCarthy blocks Schiff

Washington Examiner: Mayorkas hit with second impeachment effort for ‘systematic destruction’ of border

Washington Examiner: Opinion: State of Our Union: Biden’s China policy tolerates excessive risks

CQ Roll Call: Lawmakers To Pentagon: Curtail Defense Spending ‘Wish Lists’

AP: Russia said eyeing eastern Ukraine push; Kyiv targets graft

Reuters: Russia Advances In East Ukraine, Strike On Apartments Kills Civilians

Politico: Ukraine Can’t Retake Crimea Soon, Pentagon Tells Lawmakers in Classified Briefing

AP: Ukraine hails French gift of radar as ‘cherry on the cake’

Wall Street Journal: U.S. Poised To Send New Smart Weapons

New York Times: Another Subtle Dance, This Time for U.S. Jets

19fortyfive.com: Putin Should Be Scared: The War in Ukraine Is Destroying His Military

AP: Iran blames Israel for drone attack, threatens retaliation

New York Times: As It Builds Nuclear Program, Iran Develops Diverse Arsenal of Missiles

New York Times: China And The U.S. Are Wooing Indonesia, And Beijing Has The Edge

AP: Taiwan activates defenses in response to China incursions

Business Insider: New U.S. Marine Units Are Taking Position On ‘Key Terrain’ Around Taiwan As Tensions Rise With China

Air & Space Forces Magazine: How to Talk About a Potential War with China

Air & Space Forces Magazine: CBO Estimates $15-18 Million Cost Per ARRW Hypersonic Missile

Breaking Defense: Air Force Wants Its Next-Gen Tanker Flying by 2040

National Defense Magazine: Navy’s Del Toro: AUKUS Submarine Roadmap to Arrive On Time

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Hinote Urges Defense Innovation Board to Find Incentives for Faster Technology Development

Calendar

THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 2

110:30 a.m. 1744 R St. NW — German Marshall Fund of the U.S. discussion: “The Foreign Policy of Technology.” with U.S. Ambassador for Cyberspace and Digital Policy Nathaniel Fick; David Ignatius, columnist at the Washington Post; and former U.S. Ambassador to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Karen Kornbluh, director and senior fellow at the GMFUS’s Digital Innovation and Democracy Initiative and former deputy chief of staff at the Treasury Department https://www.gmfus.org/event/foreign-policy-technology-ambassador-nate-fick

1 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discussion: “One Year On: Germany’s Foreign Policy Shift and the War in Ukraine,” with German Ambassador to the U.S. Emily Haber; Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova; Steven Sokol, president of the American Council on Germany; Dan Baer, director of the CEIP Europe Program; and Sophia Besch, fellow at CEIP’s Europe Program https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/02/02/one-year-on-germany-s-foreign-policy-shift

7 p.m. — Committee for a Sane U.S.-China Policy virtual discussion: “Myths, Realities, and Implications of China’s Nuclear Buildup,” with Michael Klare, co-chairman, Committee for a Sane U.S.-China Policy and a senior visiting fellow at the Arms Control Association; Hans Kristensen, director, Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists; and Tong Zhao, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and visiting research scholar at Princeton University’s Science and Global Security Program https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register

FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 3

12 p.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs virtual discussion: “NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) and Efforts to Reduce Risk and Build Public Trust in Artificial Intelligence,” with Elham Tabassi, chief of staff of the NIST Information Technology Laboratory https://calendar.gwu.edu/nist-and-efforts-reduce-risk-and-build-public-trust-ai

TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 7

8 a.m. — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group Zoom conversation with Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI), chairman, Senate Armed Services Committee. Contact: Thom Shanker at [email protected]

2 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution “The Russia-Ukraine war: Year two and strategic consequences,” with Fiona Hill, senior fellow, Center on the United States and Europe, Brookings; Susan Glasser, staff writer, the New Yorker; Constanze Stelzenmuller, Fritz Stern chairwoman on Germany and trans-Atlantic relations, senior fellow, and director, Center on the United States and Europe, Brookings; Asli Aydintasbas, visiting fellow, Center on the United States and Europe, Brookings; Matthew Duss, visiting scholar, American Statecraft Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Amy Nelson, fellow, Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Brookings; Kori Schake, senior fellow and director of foreign and defense policy studies, American Enterprise Institute; Michael O’Hanlon, Philip H. Knight chairman in defense and strategy, senior fellow ,and director, Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Brookings; Bruce Jones, senior fellow and director, Project on International Order and Strategy, Brookings; Patricia Kim, fellow, Center for East Asia Policy Studies and John L. Thornton China Center, Brookings; Natan Sachs, senior fellow and director, Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings; and Tara Varma, visiting fellow, Center on the United States and Europe, Brookings https://connect.brookings.edu/register-to-watch-ukraine-year-two

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“The DPRK [North Korea] has a clear counteraction strategy capable of coping with any short- and long-term scenario attempted by the U.S. and its vassal forces, and will strongly control the present and future potential challenges with the most overwhelming nuclear force.”

Statement issued by North Korea Foreign Ministry in response to the U.S. and South Korean announcement of plans for increased military exercises

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